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Congenital Malformation and Stillbirth in Germany and Europe Before and After the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Congenital Malformation and Stillbirth in Germany and Europe Before and After the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident,Hagen Scherb,Eveline Weigelt

Congenital Malformation and Stillbirth in Germany and Europe Before and After the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident   (Citations: 9)
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In large parts of central, eastern, and northern Europe, aware- ness of the many lasting detrimental health effects from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) accident of April 1986 has increased. In this paper, the authors suggest a flexible, syn- optic method based on logistic regression for the analysis of national as well as district-by-district reproductive failure data. The main idea is to model a spatial-temporal (annual or monthly) data set by adjusting for country- or region-specific trend func- tions, and either to test for local or global temporal jumps or broken sticks (change-points) associated with the years 1986 or 1987, or to test for the spatial effects of regionally stratified exposure or dosimetry data. In numerous official data sets from central, eastern, and northern European countries or regions, absolute or relative increases of stillbirth rates after 1986 were observed. Those purely temporal change-points are supported by results from ecological exposure-response analyses involving a spatial dimension represented by region-specific exposure data. We found significant ecological relative risks in the range of 1.005 to 1.020 per kBq/m2 137Cs for stillbirths and congenital malformations in Germany. A similar result is obtained from Finnish data. The relative risk coefficient of 1.01 per kBq/m2 137Cs translates to a preliminary relative risk coefficient of ap- proximately 1.60 per mSv/a. The disclosed spatial-temporal ef- fects in Germany and Europe indicate that the radioactivity re- leased over large parts of Europe by the Chernobyl accident had a detrimental effect on reproductivity in those areas.
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    • ...Consequently, these findings are in the same order of magnitude as the results reported by Scherb and Weigelt (2003)...
    • ...a preliminary relative risk coefficient of 1.60/mSv per year (Scherb and Weigelt 2003)...
    • ...Based on our previous analysis of birth defects and stillbirth after Chernobyl, i.e., assuming an approximate dose-specific relative risk of 1.5/mSv per year, it is possible to conjecture that the number of impaired children is in the same order of magnitude as the deficit of births after Chernobyl (Scherb and Weigelt 2003)...
    • ...In sharp contrast to that, our estimated effects are in the order of magnitude of 1.50/mSv per year for birth defects and stillbirths and 1.02/mSv per year for the sex odds (Scherb and Voigt 2007; Scherb and Weigelt 2003)...

    Hagen Scherbet al. The human sex odds at birth after the atmospheric atomic bomb tests, a...

    • ...Intra-uterine death, premature birth, low birth weight and perinatal deaths were registered in many European countries16,17,19,26, 34-46...

    Chris Busbyet al. The evidence of radiation effects in embryos and fetuses exposed to Ch...

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