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UTILIZAÇÃO DA METODOLOGIA DE BOX E JENKINS NAS PREVISÕES DO PREÇO DE EXPORTAÇÃO DA MADEIRA SERRADA DE PINUS NO BRASIL

UTILIZAÇÃO DA METODOLOGIA DE BOX E JENKINS NAS PREVISÕES DO PREÇO DE EXPORTAÇÃO DA MADEIRA SERRADA DE PINUS NO BRASIL,Apresentação Oral-Comercializaçã

UTILIZAÇÃO DA METODOLOGIA DE BOX E JENKINS NAS PREVISÕES DO PREÇO DE EXPORTAÇÃO DA MADEIRA SERRADA DE PINUS NO BRASIL  
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THIS WORK WAS MADE TO CONSTRUCT A FORECASTING MODEL FOR EXPORT PRICE OF SAW WOOD OF PINUS IN BRAZIL, USING THE BOX E JENKINS METHODOLOGY. THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY 1995 T O AUGUST 2007 WAS CONSIDERED TO ADJUST THE MODEL AND THE PER IOD FROM SEPTEMBER 2007 TO AUGUST 2008 FOR VALIDATING THE PR OJECTIONS OF THE MODEL. THE CHOICE OF THE MOST APPROPRIATE MODEL WAS BASED ON THE CRITERIA OF AIC AND SCH, PARSIMONY PRINCIPLE , SIGNIFICANCE OF COEFFICIENTS AND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE WASTE. THE RESULTS SHOW THAT THE APPROPRIATE MODEL FOR EXPORT PRICE OF SAW WOOD OF PINUS IN BRAZIL) WAS THE ARIMA (3,1,0).
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