Academic
Publications
Global Climate Models and 20th and 21st Century Arctic Climate Change

Global Climate Models and 20th and 21st Century Arctic Climate Change,Cecilia M. Bitz,Jeff K. Ridley,Marika Holland,Howard Cattle

Global Climate Models and 20th and 21st Century Arctic Climate Change  
BibTex | RIS | RefWorks Download
We review the history of global climate model (GCM) development with regard to Arctic climate beginning with the ACSYS era. This was a time of rapid improvement in many models. We focus on those aspects of the Arctic climate system that are most likely to amplify the Arctic response to anthro- pogenic greenhouse gas forcing in the 20th and 21st centuries. Lessons from past GCM modeling and the most likely near-future model developments are discussed. We present highlights of GCM simulations from the new Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) and the Community Cli- mate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), which we compare to a multi-model ensemble mean from the models that participated in the World Climate Re- search Programme's third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). We discuss some ways that the selected models capture the late 20th century Arctic climate even better than the CMIP3 model mean. These models have considerably larger climate change in the Arctic than the CMIP3 model mean by mid 21st century. Thus the surface warms by about 50% more on aver- age north of 75◦N in the selected models than in the CMIP3 model mean, which amounts to more than three times the global average warming. The sea ice thins and retreats 50-100% more in the selected models than in the CMIP3 model mean. Further, the oceanic transport of heat into the Arctic increases much more in the selected models than in other CMIP3 models and contributes to the larger climate change.
Cumulative Annual
View Publication
The following links allow you to view full publications. These links are maintained by other sources not affiliated with Microsoft Academic Search.