Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century

Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century,10.1111/j.1728-4457.2003.00001.x,Population and Development Review,Paul D

Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century   (Citations: 54)
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The article discusses issues raised by persistent below-replacement fertility in Europe. The continent's demographic predicament is highlighted by comparing age structures and relative population sizes between populations in and outside Europe-such as those of Russia and Yemen and those of an enlarged 25-country European Union and a 25-country hinterland to the EU in North Africa and West Asia-during the past 50 years and prospectively up to 2050, based on United Nations estimates and projections. Potential geopolitical aspects of the population shifts are considered. European policy responses to them are found largely wanting. With respect to the key demographic variable, fertility, explicit pronatalism is rejected by most European governments. A set of policy measures that commands wide support, with the hoped-for side effect of raising birth rates, seeks to make women's participation in the formal labor force compatible with childrearing. The effectiveness of such measures, however, is likely to be limited. Continued below-replacement fertility, higher immigration from outside Europe, negative population growth, and loss of demographic weight within the global population are safe predictions for the Europe of the twenty-first century. Copyright 2003 by The Population Council, Inc..
Journal: Population and Development Review - POP DEVELOP REV , vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 1-28, 2003
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    • ...After an initial ‘wait-and-see’ period, these very low fertility levels became a key concern for governments (Demeny, 2003; McDonald, 2006)...

    Clara H. Mulderet al. Homeownership Regimes and Low Fertility

    • ...Bongaarts 2001). Given that the use of highly reliable contraception has become a norm in most European countries, thus eliminating some ‘excess’ unplanned and unwanted fertility, the divergence between fertility intentions and outcomes may be seen as a rather logical and, indeed, inevitable, result (Demeny 2003)...

    Tomáš Sobotka. Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

    • ...But that has historical precedent: in the first half of the nineteenth century the Offshoots experienced much higher fertility than Northern Europe, largely because of earlier and more universal female marriage; during much of the second compromise, the Offshoots’ fertility was again higher (see Table 2). Demeny (2003) implied that fertility might not rise again because Europeans accepted lower levels as shown by their very muted reactions ...

    John C. Caldwell. Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions

    • ...It is not difficult to imagine the potential for very significant population decline with figures such as these, accompanied by an important reduction in the relative weight of Europe in world population (Demeny, 2003)...

    David S. Reher. Towards long-term population decline: a discussion of relevant issues

    • ...In modern societies couples have several competing preferences; since they usually cannot meet all these wishes at the same time (some may even be mutually exclusive), they usually have fewer children than they say in surveys they would like to have (Demeny 2003)...

    Maria Rita Testaet al. The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Pos...

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