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The Lethal Effects of Three-Strikes Laws

The Lethal Effects of Three-Strikes Laws,10.1086/468112,Journal of Legal Studies,Thomas B. Marvell,Carlisle E. Moody

The Lethal Effects of Three-Strikes Laws   (Citations: 23)
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Three-strikes laws provide very long prison terms for certain criminals with prior convictions of serious violent crimes. It is likely that the laws increase homicides because a few criminals, fearing the enhanced penalties, murder victims and witnesses to limit resistance and identification. With a state-level multiple-time-series design, we find that the laws are associated with 10-12 percent more homicides in the short run and 23-29 percent in the long run. The impact occurs in almost all 24 states with three-strikes laws. Furthermore, there is little evidence that the laws have any compensating crime reduction impact through deterrence or incapacitation. Copyright 2001 by the University of Chicago.
Journal: Journal of Legal Studies - J LEGAL STUD , vol. 30, no. 1, 2001
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    • ...the fraction of the population aged 15 to 17, 18 to 24, and 24 to 35; and the fraction of...

    Matthew J. Bakeret al. Crime, Expectations and The Deterrence Hypothesis

    • ...Dependent variable for crime studies is homicide rate per capita for Marvell and Moody (2001), violent and property rate per capita for all others; dependent variable for prison studies is prison rate per capita...
    • ...‘‘Avg elasticity’’ is elasticity of homicide with respect to prison (Marvell and Moody 2001), elasticity of index crime with respect to prison (Liedka et al. 2006), elasticity of violent crime with respect to prison (all other crime studies), elasticity of prison with respect to violent crime (all prison studies) J Quant Criminol (2008) 24:149–178 151...
    • ...The figure reported for Marvell and Moody (2001) is the elasticity of homicide rate with regard to prison population; the figure reported for Liedka et al. (2006) is the elasticity of index crime rate with regard to prison population...
    • ...As shown in Table 1, the crime studies that relied on this method (Besci 1999; DeFina and Arvanites 2002; Marvell and Moody 2001) resulted in lower standard errors on the prison variable than the average; the prison study that relied on levels and annual data (Smith 2004) produced an exceptionally low standard error on the crime variable...

    William Spelman. Specifying the Relationship Between Crime and Prisons

    • ...However, to the extent implementation of a selective policy leads to a ‘hardening’ of crime—offenders facing long-term incapacitation going to extremes to avoid detection, even if for example this would mean they would have to kill for it (Kovandzic et al. 2002; Marvell and Moody 2001; Shafer 1999)—a focus on incapacitation may in turn overestimate selective policies ultimate benefits...

    Arjan A. J. Bloklandet al. Selectively Incapacitating Frequent Offenders: Costs and Benefits of V...

    • ...This specification, which is intended to minimize the effect of outliers, finds support in several previous macro‐level studies in criminology (eg, Marvell & Moody, 1995, 1996, 2001)...

    John L. Worrall. Reconsidering the Relationship Between Welfare Spending and Serious Cr...

    • ...In many macro-level criminological models, this variable is usually a measure of population size (see, e.g., Chamlin and Cochran 1997; Marvell and Moody 2001; Pratt and Godsey, forthcoming; Sampson and Groves 1989; Shepherd, forthcoming)...
    • ...Since many criminological times series appear to be stationary based on unit -root tests, however, this transformation is rarely undertaken (see, e.g., Marvell and Moody 1996, 1995, 2001)...

    John L. Worrallet al. Estimation Issues Associated with Time-Series—Cross-Section Analysis i...

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