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After 9/11Is it all Different Now?

After 9/11Is it all Different Now?,10.1177/0022002704272864,Journal of Conflict Resolution,Walter Enders,Todd Sandler

After 9/11Is it all Different Now?   (Citations: 41)
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Using time-series procedures, the authors investigate whether transnational terrorism changed following 9/11 and the subsequent U.S.-led “war on terror.” Perhaps surprising, little has changed in the time series of overall incidents and most of its component series. When 9/11 is prejudged as a break date, the authors find that logistically complex hostage-taking events have fallen as a proportion of all events, while logistically simple, but deadly, bombings have increased as a proportion of deadly incidents. These results hold when they apply the Bai-Perron procedure in which structural breaks are data identified. This procedure locates earlier breaks in the mid-1970s and 1990s. Reasonable out-of-sample forecasts are possible if structural breaks are incorporated fairly rapidly into the model.
Journal: Journal of Conflict Resolution - J CONFLICT RESOLUT , vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 259-277, 2005
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    • ...Ruby, 2002: 10; Enders and Sandler, 2005: 260; Shugart, 2006: 9)...

    Regina Heller. NOTIONS OF (IN)SECURITY WITHIN THE EU. HOW EUROPEAN POLICY‐MAKERS VIEW...

    • ...Enders and Sandler (2005) use time series to show that little has changed in overall terrorism incidents before and after 9/11...

    Kjell Hauskenet al. Defending Against a Stockpiling Terrorist

    • ... theoretic techniques to model the decision making of governments and terror groups (Enders and Sandler 1995; Arce and Sandler 2005; Ferrero 2006; Rosendorff and Sandler 2004; Sandler and Arce 2003; Bueno de Mesquita 2005a, 2005b, 2007; and Bapat 2006), and a growing empirical literature employs sophisticated time series econometric methods to examine whether the structure, timing, and type of terrorist events has changed over time (Enders and ...

    John Cadiganet al. Strategic entry deterrence and terrorism: Theory and experimental evid...

    • ...More recent studies have found evidence of substitution effects, which occur in response to government implementation of counter terrorism measures (Enders & Sandler, 2005; Sandler & Enders, 2004; Dutter & Seliktar, 2007)...

    Marie-Helen Maras. How to Catch a Terrorist: Is Mass Surveillance the Answer?

    • ...In a recent paper, Enders & Sandler (2005) examine prespecified (e.g., 9/11) and unspecified changepoints in hostage events time series...
    • ...Unlike the current study, which disaggregates hostage incidents into three distinct classes, Enders & Sandler (2005) aggregate all hostage events to quarterly series...
    • ...The former are motivated by previous findings such as Enders & Sandler (2005) where hostage taking events are shown to be both cyclical and subject to structural shifts...
    • ...In other cases, cycles may stem from demonstration eects of success or failure (see Enders & Sandler, 2006, 2005; Enders et al., 1992; Im et al., 1987)...
    • ...This prior is consistent with the Bai-Perron breakpoint analysis results of Enders & Sandler (2005)...
    • ...This last observation means that past studies — e.g., Enders & Sandler (2005) — that aggregate all hostage events miss important breaks in the series...

    Patrick T. Brandtet al. Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics

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