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Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future,Peter N. Duinker,Lorne A. Greig

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future   (Citations: 20)
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Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatoryexercisesinpursuitofsustainabledevelopment.However,theyarelittleused,atleastinanyformal way,inenvironmentalimpactassessment(EIA).ThisispuzzlingbecauseEIAisaprocessspecificallydedicated toexploringoptionsfor more-sustainable(i.e.,lessenvironmentallydamaging) futures.Inthispaper,wereview the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development. © 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc.
Published in 2006.
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