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Modelling Domestic Stock Energy Use and Heat-related Health Risk: A GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach

Modelling Domestic Stock Energy Use and Heat-related Health Risk: A GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach,ANNA MAVROGIANNI,MICHAEL DAVIES,ZAID CHALAB

Modelling Domestic Stock Energy Use and Heat-related Health Risk: A GIS-based bottom-up modelling approach  
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This paper demonstrates a systematic appr oach towards exploring the impact of urban built fo rm and the combined effect of climate change and the urban hea t island phenomenon on the levels of domestic energ y consumption and heat-related health risk in London. The energy module of the study combines GIS databases and BRED EM-type algorithms to estimate the energy consumption of st atistically derived dwelling types representative o f the Middle Layer Super Output Area (MLSOA) level. External air tempe rature in various locations across London was predi cted using the London Site Specific Air Temperature (LSSAT) model. Comparison of the model output for 10 case study a reas with top- down energy statistics demonstrated that the model successfully ranks areas based on their domestic sp ace heating demand. The health module of the model aims to inve stigate the urban texture factors that render domes tic environments prone to higher risk of heat stress. The developmen t and use of an epidemiological model that will fee d into the health module is discussed in this paper. It is based on m ulti-variable analysis of deaths during heat wave a nd non-heat wave days in order to examine the influence on risk of h eat-related mortality of local urban built form cha racteristics.
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