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A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters

A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters,10.1016/j.ress.2010.06.019,Reliability Engineering &

A general approach for the estimation of loss of life due to natural and technological disasters   (Citations: 1)
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In assessing the safety of engineering systems in the context of quantitative risk analysis one of the most important consequence types concerns the loss of life due to accidents and disasters. In this paper, a general approach for loss of life estimation is proposed which includes three elements: (1) the assessment of physical effects associated with the event; (2) determination of the number of exposed persons (taking into account warning and evacuation); and (3) determination of mortality amongst the population exposed. The typical characteristics of and modelling approaches for these three elements are discussed. This paper focuses on “small probability–large consequences” events within the engineering domain. It is demonstrated how the proposed approach can be applied to various case studies, such as tunnel fires, earthquakes and flood events.
Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety - RELIAB ENG SYST SAFETY , vol. 95, no. 11, pp. 1123-1133, 2010
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    • ...Various emergencies, such as natural disasters, fires, explosions, chemical accidents, will induce different hazards due to different evolution dynamics [4]...
    • ...Some similar evacuation timelines and related phases of evacuation are suggested in other emergencies such as floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, explosions, and toxic chemicals [4]...

    Guanquan Chuet al. A stochastic analysis on occupant evacuation time under emergency cond...

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