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Environmental Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Environmental Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity,10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<0843:ECOTCI>2.0.CO;2,Journal of The Atmospheric Sciences,Kerry Emanuel,

Environmental Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity   (Citations: 91)
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The influence of various environmental factors on tropical cyclone intensity is explored using a simple coupled ocean atmosphere model. It is first demonstrated that this model is capable of accurately replicating the intensity evolution of storms that move over oceans whose upper thermal structure is not far from monthly mean climatology and that are relatively unaffected by environmental wind shear. A parameterization of the effects of environmental wind shear is then developed and shown to work reasonably well in several cases for which the magnitude of the shear is relatively well known. When used for real-time forecasting guidance, the model is shown to perform better than other existing numerical models while being competitive with statistical methods. In the context of a limited number of case studies, the model is used to explore the sensitivity of storm intensity to its initialization and to a number of environmental factors, including potential intensity, storm track, wind shear, upper-ocean thermal structure, bathymetry, and land surface characteristics. All of these factors are shown to influence storm intensity, with their relative contributions varying greatly in space and time. It is argued that, in most cases, the greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of storm intensity is uncertainty in forecast values of the environmental wind shear, the presence of which also reduces the inherent predictability of storm intensity.
Journal: Journal of The Atmospheric Sciences - J ATMOS SCI , vol. 61, no. 7, pp. 843-858, 2004
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    • ...Rather than using a regional model, their downscaling uses a highly idealized, axisymmetric hurricane model with parameterized sensitivity to environmental wind shear and humidity (Emanuel et al. 2004)...

    David S. Nolan. Evaluating Environmental Favorableness for Tropical Cyclone Developmen...

    • ...Along each track so generated, the Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System (CHIPS) [Emanuel et al., 2004] is run to predict the storm intensity, according to environmental factors, including potential intensity, depth of the ocean mixing layer, and thermal stratification of the ocean below the ocean mixing layer...

    N. Linet al. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City

    • ...However, predictions of hurricane or typhoon intensity are advancing slowly [Emanuel, 1999; Emanuel et al., 2004]...
    • ...More and more attention has been paid to the role of the ocean played in TC intensity evolution in recent years [e.g., Hong et al., 2000; Shay et al., 2000; Goni and Trinanes, 2003; Emanuel et al., 2004; Lin et al., 2005; Lin et al., 2008; Lin et al., 2009]...
    • ...understanding of the positive correlation between warm ocean features and successive typhoon intensification [Hong et al., 2000; Shay et al., 2000; Goni and Trinanes, 2003; Kaplan and DeMaria, 2003; Emanuel et al., 2004; Lin et al., 2005; Lin et al., 2008; Lin et al., 2009], to gain further understanding about where cooling response to a TC will take place becomes a key task for further improving prediction of the change in typhoon ...

    Zhe-Wen Zhenget al. Effects of preexisting cyclonic eddies on upper ocean responses to Cat...

    • ...Numerous observational and numerical studies have confirmed that important positive and negative feedback mechanisms exist in the typhoon-ocean system for variable environmental factors (e.g., Bao et al., 2000; Bender and Ginis, 2000; Emanuel et al., 2004)...
    • ...Emanuel et al. (2004) explored the positive and negative effects of various environmental factors on tropical cyclone intensity...

    Liwen Huanget al. Mesoscale air-sea interaction during the passage of a typhoon over the...

    • ...Emanuel et al. [2003] argued that in most cases, uncertainties in environmental wind shear make it difficult to forecast storm intensity accurately...

    Eun-Jung Kimet al. Impact of air-sea interaction on East Asian summer monsoon climate in ...

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