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The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility

The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility,10.2139/ssrn.277356,SSRN Electronic Journal,Olivier J. Blanchard,Simon Johnson

The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility   (Citations: 324)
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Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal , 2001
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    • ...Evidence is found in particular for the US (where it has been dubbed the “Great Moderation” by Blanchard and Simon, 2001), but this decline in business cycle volatility seems to have also more global dimensions...

    Klaus Weyerstrasset al. Business Cycle Synchronisation with(in) the Euro Area: in Search of a ...

    • ...Our results are absolutely in line with Blanchard and Simon (2001), who also argued that macroeconomic volatility has been decreasing since World War II (although temporarily revived in the 1970s and early-1980s)...
    • ...Finally, our results lend further support to the conclusions of Blanchard and Simon (2001)aboutthevolatilityofboththeinflationandtheoutputgrowth.Macroeconomic volatility started to decrease in the decades of 1950 and 1960, suggesting that the great moderation started then, but that it was temporarily interrupted due to the oil crises of the 1970s, whose effects were felt until the mid-1980s...

    Luís Aguiar-Conrariaet al. Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues

    • ...Blanchard and Simon (2001) argued that ‘‘recessions are largely the result of infrequent large shocks—indeed, sufficiently large and identifiable that they often have names: the first and second oil shocks, the Volcker disinflation, and so on’’...

    Olivier Darnéet al. Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860–1988

    • ...The recent literature on the “Great Moderation” ,s uch as Kim and Nelson (1999), Blanchard and Simon (2001), and Stock and Watson (2003), has documented a sharp fall in the variability of growth in real output in the US as well as in many other industrial countries since the mid- 1980s...

    Unknown. Growth, volatility and stabilisation policy in a DSGE model with nomin...

    • ...In a recent article, Blanchard and Simon (2001) documented that the variability of quarterly growth in real output (as measured by its standard deviation) has declined by half since the mid-1980s, while the variability of quarterly inflation has declined by about two thirds...

    Philip Arestiset al. What Monetary Policy after the Crisis?

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