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Expected Value
Imprecise Probability
Probability Distribution
Risk Analysis
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Practical Research on Fuzzy Risk of Water Resources in Jinhua City, China
Practical Research on Fuzzy Risk of Water Resources in Jinhua City, China,10.1007/s1100401092838,Mathematical Geosciences,LiHua Feng,GaoYuan Luo
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Practical Research on Fuzzy Risk of Water Resources in Jinhua City, China
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LiHua Feng
,
GaoYuan Luo
A fuzzy expected value of the possibilityprobability distribution is a set with and as its boundaries. The fuzzy expected values and of a possibilityprobability distribution represent the fuzzy risk values being calculated. Using these values under a given α level, three risk values can be calculated: a conservative risk value, a venture risk value, and a maximum probability risk value. Calculation of the fuzzy expected value of Jinhua City’s
water resource
risk has been performed based on the interiorexterior set model. This model is first used to evaluate the risk of water resources in Jinhua City: it not only solves an
imprecise probability
estimation, which results from
small samples
and unclear risk relationship, but it also explores the implicit risk information of the raw data as much as possible. Both of these achievements can make analyses more objective and comprehensive, which makes it easy to regulate options for policymakers. Hence, the fuzzy
risk analysis
provides a new way to assess water resources.
Journal:
Mathematical Geosciences  MATH GEOSCI
, vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 121132, 2011
DOI:
10.1007/s1100401092838
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