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Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit

Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit,10.1029/2009SW000543,Space Weather-the International Journal of

Model uncertainties in predictions of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth orbit   (Citations: 2)
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It is very important, both for research and forecasting application, to be aware of uncertainty estimation of a scientific model, i.e., to know how model performance depends on the uncertainty in the input parameters. Scientific models are becoming more important as tools for space weather operators' applications and for space weather forecasting. It is essential that operational users, forecasters, model developers, and the scientific community are aware of model capabilities and limitations. In our previous study we validated the performance of the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination in simulating the propagation of 14 events of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the L1 point using the cone model approach for halo CMEs. In this short report we present the results of the uncertainty estimation for the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination studying the dependence of the arrival time of the CME shock and the magnitude of the CME impact on the magnetosphere on the uncertainty in the CME input parameters using three events from the previously reported 14 event list.
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    • ...[6] In our previous papers [Taktakishvili et al., 2009, 2010] we presented the results of the WSA‐ENLIL cone modeling for 14 CME events and compared them to ACE observations and two reference model results...
    • ...To understand why the ENLIL cone model runs overestimates the impact in the work by Taktakishvili et al. [2010] we also performed simulations varying this free parameter...

    A. Taktakishviliet al. Modeling of coronal mass ejections that caused particularly large geom...

    • ...ENLILv2.6 does not include a magnetic cloud in the CME (see Falkenberg et al. [2010] and Taktakishvili et al. [2010] for an extensive description of input parameters and their effects on the model)...
    • ...[26] It should be noted that the purpose of this study is not to obtain the best ENLILv2.6 simulation possible, and that all the runs here could be improved by fine‐tuning the background conditions and the input parameters [see, e.g., Falkenberg et al., 2011] for Event 5, Falkenberg et al. [2010], and Taktakishvili et al. [2010])...

    T. V. Falkenberget al. Evaluating predictions of ICME arrival at Earth and Mars

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