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Experimental Results on the Process of Goal Formation and Aspiration Adaptation

Experimental Results on the Process of Goal Formation and Aspiration Adaptation,10.1007/978-3-540-79309-0_2,Reinhard Selten

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Experimental Results on the Process of Goal Formation and Aspiration Adaptation   (Citations: 3)
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We experimentally investigate how subjects deal with a multi-period planning and decision problem. The context is a profit maximization task in a computer-simulated monopoly market over fifty time periods. The subjects are provided with a computerized short-run planning tool allowing them to check feasibility of any aspiration level for any set of feedback variables of the respective planning period. Our results fall into two categories, first, regarding the selection of goal variables and, second, regarding the process of aspiration adaptation. As to the former category, we find that subjects with at least median success change their goal variables less frequently than those below median success. Relatedly, goal persistence, a measure of a subject’s tendency to stick to the current goal system, is strongly positively correlated with success. As to the latter category, we find that aspiration levels tend to be changed in strong agreement with basic principles of Aspiration Adaptation Theory (Sauermann and Selten 1962, Selten 1998, 2001). In addition, we find that in many cases the process of aspiration adaptation leads into a nearly stationary situation in which the aspiration level does not significantly change over several periods. Those subjects who reach a nearly stationary situation tend to be more successful and more goal persistent than those who do not. Some subjects who reach a nearly stationary situation deviate from Aspiration Adaptation Theory in order to find a more profitable nearly stationary situation.
Conference: Algorithmic Game Theory - SAGT , 2008
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    • ...Recent experimental evidence from economics researchers provides support that people apply boundedly rational procedures, such as Aspiration Adaptation Theory (AAT) [10, 12], in real-world domains [11]...
    • ...While this theory has existed since the early 1960’s [10], there are few empirical studies of how well it explains observed behavior [11]...
    • ...Furthermore, the optimal value for quality changes over time, and can only be found by solving for ∞. Nonetheless, both domains are generalized representations of real-world problems [1, 11] and thus serve as good domains for studying the models of search agents...
    • ...These problems can be generalized to many realworld domains [1, 11] and thus our findings contribute two significant findings for Artificial Intelligence researchers...

    Avi Rosenfeld, et al. Modeling Agents through Bounded Rationality Theories

    • ...While this theory has existed since the early 1960s [21], there are few empirical studies of how well it explains observed behavior [25]...
    • ...Furthermore, the optimal value for quality changes over time, and can only be found by solving for γ. Despite these differences, both domains have been previously found to be generalized representations of real-world problems [1,25] and thus serve as good domains for studying the models of people’s search agents...
    • ...domains. We studied hundreds of agents written to operate in two general optimization problems.Theseproblemscanbegeneralizedtomanyreal-worlddomains[1,25].Wealsostudied two state of the art automated negotiation agents [11,18], and hundreds of their interactions with people within two negotiation domains involving five and six parameters...

    Avi Rosenfeld, et al. Modeling agents based on aspiration adaptation theory

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