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Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming,10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00147-1,Ecological Modellin

Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming   (Citations: 75)
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No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model (linkages) with a spatial landscape model (landis) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with linkages, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by ecoregions. Individual species biomass results, simulated by linkages at year 10, were quantified using an empirical equation as species establishment coefficients (0.0–1.0). These coefficients were used to parameterize landis, thus integrating ecosystem dynamics with large-scale landscape processes such as seed dispersal and fire disturbance. Species response to climate warming at the landscape scale was simulated with landis. landis was parameterized with information derived from a species level, forest classification map, and inventory data. This incorporates spatially-explicit seed source distributions. A standard landis run with natural fire disturbance regime and current climate was conducted for 400 years. To simulate the effects of climate change, the differences in species establishment coefficients from current and warmer climates were linearly interpolated over the first 100 years assuming climate warming will occur gradually over the next century. The model was then run for another 300 years to examine the consequences after warming. Across the landscape, the decline of boreal species and the increases of temperate species were observed in the simulation. The responses of northern temperate hardwood species vary among ecoregions depending on soil nutrient and water regimes. Simulation results indicate that boreal species disappear from the landscape in 200–300 years and approximately same amount of time for a southern species to become common. Warming can accelerate the re-colonization process for current species such as found for eastern hemlock, where moisture does not become limiting. However, the re-colonization is strongly affected by available seed source explicitly described on the landscape. These phenomena cannot be simulated with most gap models, which assume a random seed rain.
Journal: Ecological Modelling - ECOL MODEL , vol. 114, no. 2, pp. 213-233, 1999
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    • ...Climatic change could affect species fecundity through the process of flowering and seed production (LaDeau and Clark 2001; Memmott et al. 2007), and affect seedling establishment through the modification of environmental factors (e.g., temperature and moisture) (He et al. 1999; Price et al. 2001)...
    • ...He et al. (1999) assessed the forest landscape change due to the modification of species colonization ability as determined by a seedling establishment probability...
    • ...There are many possible drivers including seed production (Greenwood et al. 2002; LaDeau and Clark 2001); seed dispersal (Higgins et al. 2003); seedling establishment (He et al. 1999); competition for nutrients; water and light (Gleeson and Tilman 1990); forest diebacks (Auclair 1993; Cox et al. 2004); herbivores (Howlett and Davidson 2003); pathogens and parasites (Moorcroft et al. 2006); and genetic adaptation (Bradshaw and Holzapfel ...

    Chonggang Xuet al. Importance of colonization and competition in forest landscape respons...

    • ... 1999, Scheller and Mladenoff 2005, Xu et al...

    Andrew K. Skidmoreet al. Geospatial tools address emerging issues in spatial ecology: a review ...

    • ... Additionally, species are unlikely to disperse rapidly enough to track their optimal climatic conditions under rapid anthropogenic climate change, leading to combinations of species composition and environment that do not occur currently ...

    Emily R. Lineset al. Influences of Forest Structure, Climate and Species Composition on Tre...

    • ...Landscape modeling, which integrates the fields of landscape ecology, quantitative ecology, computer simulation and geographic information systems (GIS) technology, is essential for long-term research in macroecology, such as studying the equilibrium between landscape-scale biodiversity and human activities under global climate change [17,37,38,77,85,88,91]...
    • ...Among them, LANDIS model is a successful example [38,56,57]...
    • ...including succession, disturbance, seed dispersal, forest management, carbon dynamics, and climate change affects [32,38,86] .A t the landscape scale, LANDIS uses age-defined cohorts to represent the age structure of tree species and uses a 10-year time-step to determine changes in these age classes driven by key ecological processes such as establishment, competition and dispersal...
    • ...He et al. [38] provided a method linking the forest gap model LINKAGES [69] and LANDIS to study species’ responses to large spatial scale climate warming in northern Wisconsin, USA...
    • ...We have recently developed a software tool LANDISLINK which provides a more integrated and automatic methods for integrating LINKAGES [38] and LANDIS...

    Weimin Xiet al. Review of forest landscape models: Types, methods, development and app...

    • ...LANDIS can be used to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on forest landscapes on both long temporal and large spatial scales (He et al., 1999; Gustafson et al., 2000; Scheller and Mladenoff, 2005)...
    • ...LANDIS is a spatially explicit, raster-based landscape model that is used to simulate ecological dynamics including forest succession, disturbance, seed dispersal, species establishment, as well as fire, wind disturbance, and timber harvesting (Mladenoff et al., 1996; Mladenoff and He, 1999; He et al., 1999; Gustafson et al., 2000)...
    • ...if its SEC is greater than the random number, the species establish) (He et al., 1999, 2005)...
    • ...Fire is stochastically simulated based on distribution of fire intensity, burn size, and fuel load based on the fire-tolerance of species, fire regime and fuel regime (He et al., 1999; Yang et al., 2004)...
    • ...For example, windthrow causes the death of trees and further increases the potential fire intensity class at a site due to increased fuel load (He et al., 1999)...
    • ...In the northern part of the region, the Korean pine is an exotic species and larch forests can resists its invasion from the south because the patch size of larch is much greater than the seeding distance of Korean pine (He et al., 1999; Lyford et al., 2003)...

    Rencang Buet al. Using the LANDIS model to evaluate forest harvesting and planting stra...

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